Dougherty leads U.S. Open; Woods lurks

Golf Betting Lines

06/15/2007 - Oakmont, PA (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - Englishman Nick Dougherty shot a two-under 68 Thursday to take the first-round lead at the U.S. Open.

His red number barely had any company.

Angel Cabrera was the only other player under-par following a tough round at Oakmont where the scoring average soared over 75. The Argentine was sitting one shot behind at one-under 69.

Jose Maria Olazabal and Bubba Watson were another stroke further back at even- par 70.

"The U.S. Open is brutal, it tests every aspect of your game," said Dougherty, whose early 68 held up through the afternoon tee times of Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson, Adam Scott and Jim Furyk.

Tiger Woods played in the morning and opened with a one-over 71 to lead a group of 16 players who were tied for fifth place. Defending champion Geoff Ogilvy, Furyk, Singh and 51-year-old Fred Funk were among those at 71.

"The golf course is playing hard, and this is with pretty benign conditions and pretty favorable pin positions," said Woods, who had four bogeys and three birdies.

Woods made those comments early in the afternoon, when it looked like Oakmont might still yield some lower scores. The course was softened by rain that fell Wednesday, allowing for slower greens for the first dozen or so groups.

"Oakmont probably will never play easier than we had it in the first nine holes," said Ogilvy, who won his first major at Winged Foot last year.

Dougherty admitted the previous day's rain helped the early groups. His number was one shot better than the leading 18-hole score last year, when Colin Montgomerie's 69 was the highest first-round score to lead a U.S. Open in 20 years.

"You can get putts to stop relatively close to the hole," Dougherty said.

Some weren't so lucky, even those who played in the more favorable morning conditions.

Adam Scott (76), Henrik Stenson (79), Sergio Garcia (79), Paul Casey (77) and K.J. Choi (77) were among those who couldn't do enough to avoid the mistakes that can potentially end a player's U.S. Open on the first day.

Mickelson played with a black brace on his injured left wrist and opened with a four-over 74, a number that looked just good enough to keep him in the mix a year after his 72nd-hole collapse at Winged Foot.

He removed the brace to putt, revealing a bandage underneath. It's the same injury that forced his withdrawal from the Memorial two weeks ago and caused him to miss a start last week in Memphis.

"I'm not overly disappointed. It could have been a round that got away from me," Mickelson said.

Especially at Oakmont, where Mickelson said he may have originally suffered the injury while chipping from the long rough during a practice round a few weeks ago.

At its longest, the rough is around six inches deep -- same as it was at Winged Foot last year. Mickelson's toughest test may have come from a bunker shot on the back nine, which he blasted within inches to save par.

"I feel like I hung in there, and I'm excited to still be in it," he said.

Dougherty had four birdies to go along with back-to-back bogeys at Nos. 7 and 8. His last birdie was set up by a 54-degree wedge shot to six feet at the 17th, a 313-yard par four.

The 25-year-old Englishman, who is still looking for his first PGA Tour victory, said he thought the course was playing "easy." Not that he wanted everyone to know that.

"I hate saying it ... Especially if a USGA official picks up on that," he said. "It's still frightfully tough out there."

Indeed, Oakmont was showing its teeth.

Woods hit his first drive at No. 1 into one of the course's 210 bunkers and opened with a bogey. He came right back with a 15-foot birdie at the second hole to get back to even par.

"I hit enough fairways to at least give myself a chance," said Woods, who has won two U.S. Opens and 12 majors overall. "When I didn't, I just put it back in play."

Woods found bunkers again at the third and fourth holes, but made par, then rolled in another 15-foot putt for birdie at the sixth.

He was even-par around the turn, though, after making a bogey from a bunker at 288-yard, par-three eighth. Woods slipped to one-over with a two-putt bogey at the 10th.

Hitting into another bunker at the 12th, Woods made bogey and fell to two- over. But he made a good par after hitting into a bowl-like scoop in the green at the 13th, then later moved back to one-over with a three-foot birdie at the 17th.

It was a grinder's round from the world's top player -- and a far cry from his start at Winged Foot, where Woods missed the cut with two rounds of 76 not long after the death of his father.

"You know the U.S. Open is going to be a grind," Woods said.

In the other majors, he added, there are shots where you can take off. There are easy shots where you can "close your eyes" and hit it on the fairways and greens.

"On this golf course, there are none," Woods said.

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Sportsbook Betting Lines

Who Makes the Sportsbook Betting Lines?

Las Vegas Sports Consultants (LVSC) is the world’s premier oddsmaking company and the most respected authority on making the lines. Mike Seba is a Senior Oddsmaker at LVSC and has been making lines for the last six years. In our extended interview, Seba explained that there are 4-5 oddsmakers assigned to make lines for each of the major sports (pro & college football and basketball; MLB, NHL, boxing, golf). Each of these oddsmakers bring unique opinions, strengths and weaknesses to the process. Oddsmakers at LVSC are professional sports junkies who love what they do and would probably do it for nothing if you asked them, but they do get paid for it. By necessity their approach is very research-oriented and concise, since with millions of dollars at risk there is little margin for error.

“You either have a passion for it or you don’t,” Seba said.

“The #1 thing for us is to make a line for each game that creates good two-way action. We do this by drawing from past experiences and applying them to current situations. People think it’s much more complicated, but it’s not. “

What are the Football Betting Lines Trying to Accomplish?

There is a common misconception that point spreads represent the oddsmakers’ prediction of how many points the favorite will win by. That is not the case at all – their intent is NOT to evenly split the ATS result between the teams; rather, their goal is to attract equal betting action on both sides. Stated another way, they want to create a line that half the people find appealing to bet one way while the other half find it appealing to bet the other way (known as ‘dividing the action’).

Divided action means the sportsbook is guaranteed a profit on the game because of the fee charged to the bettor (called juice or vig – typically $11 bet to win $10).

How the Opening Line Is Made

The opening line is the first line created by the oddsmakers, which is then sent out to sportsbooks. Of course there is an entire method to the madness on how the opening line is created. Seba explained that it all starts with each oddsmaker creating a line on each game based upon their own personal approach. This usually includes having up-to-date power ratings on each team.

Power ratings are the oddsmaker’s value of each team and are used as a guide to calculate a "preliminary" pointspread on an upcoming game. The power ratings are adjusted after each game a team plays. Examples of non-game factors that would require an adjustment to a team's power rating are key player injuries and player trades.

Once a game’s power rating based pointspread is determined, the oddsmaker will make adjustments to that line after considering each team's most recent games played and previous games played against that opponent. Also, adjustments are made after reading each team’s local newspapers to get a sense of what the coaches & players are thinking going into the game.

Since the oddsmaker’s ultimate goal is equally dividing the sports betting action, public perception and sportsbook betting patterns must be taken into account. For example, the public might have heavy betting interest week after week on a popular college football betting team such as USC. If an oddsmaker comes up with a preliminary line of USC -7, then an adjustment up to -7.5 or -8 would be made in response to the public’s expected USC bias.

The last step in the line-making process for each oddsmaker is taking one final look to determine whether or not the line "feels right." This is where common sense and past experience with how games are bet enters into the picture.

A round-table discussion among the 4-5 oddsmakers involved in making the line for each sport is then conducted and a consensus line is decided upon by the Odds Director before it is released to the sportsbooks. Of the 4-5 oddsmakers, generally the 2 most respected opinions are weighed more heavily by the Odds Director before he decides on the final line.

Why Sports Betting Lines Change

Once the opening line is released by LVSC, the individual sportsbooks decide if they want to make any adjustments before offering it to the public. Reasons for such adjustments include:

Experts working for the individual books having a strong opinion on the game

Individual books having players who consistently bet with certain tendencies (such as an extreme bias toward favorites or toward a certain popular team like USC)

The purpose of these adjustments, like all line adjustments, is to more equally divide the betting action.

Once betting begins, sportsbooks can adjust the line at any time. In doing so they attempt to make more attractive the team that is getting less action. By moving the line, sportsbooks can influence how the public bets on a particular game.

For example, if the pointspread on a game is 7 and most of the money is coming in on the underdog (taking the +7), sportsbooks will then move the number down to 6 ½ to try and attract money on the favorite.

Moving the line is the oddsmaker's effort to balance betting action, and often times such moves can have a major impact on a bettor’s decision. Oddsmakers can also change the line depending on various event-related factors such as player injuries or weather. Obviously, if the line comes out a week ahead of the event (which is the case in football), there is much that could happen during the week leading up to the event that could affect the line. Oddsmakers have to determine if any changes are necessary and send out an "adjusted line."

“The main objective is that our clients get equal action on both sides,” Seba said. “We’re not trying to pick the team that covers the spread, we’re trying to make it a coin flip, a tough decision (for the bettor). If we’ve done that, we’ve done our job.”

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